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Cafe Business Plan

Most cafe plans fail on the same two lines: rent that turnover cannot carry, and a coffee price set by looking at the shop next door rather than at the cost of a cup. This guide covers the numbers a landlord and a lender actually check, and what belongs in the plan before you sign a lease.

What a landlord or lender looks at first

A cafe is a property business as much as a food business. Whoever is putting money in — a bank, a brewery, or a landlord deciding between you and the next applicant — works through the same short list.

  • Rent as a percentage of forecast turnover. The single number that sinks most cafe plans. Rent plus business rates and service charge much above 15% of turnover leaves nothing behind once staff and stock are paid. If your forecast needs an optimistic sales figure to get the ratio down, the forecast is the problem.
  • Covers per day, not just an annual figure. Lenders want the turnover broken down to customers per day and average spend per head, because that is checkable against the site. A plan claiming 200 covers a day from a unit with 24 seats and no takeaway trade does not survive the first question.
  • The gap between weekday and weekend trade. Office-district cafes die at weekends; high-street and destination cafes make their money then. Show the week split rather than a flat daily average, and show what happens to the wage bill on the quiet days.
  • Who is making the coffee when you are not there. Owner-operator plans that assume the owner works every shift for two years are not fundable, because there is no cover for illness and no route to a second site. Cost a supervisor into the plan from the start.

Typical startup costs

Fit-out dominates, and the spread is wide because it depends almost entirely on whether you take a unit that was already a food business. A former A3 unit with extraction and drainage in place can cost a third of what a shell costs.

Cost Typical range What drives it
Fit-out and shopfitting £25,000 – £120,000 Shell units need extraction, grease traps, drainage and three-phase power. A former cafe may need only decoration and counters.
Espresso machine and grinder £4,000 – £16,000 A two-group machine is the realistic minimum for volume. Some roasters loan machines against a bean contract, which trades capital for a higher cost per kilo.
Kitchen and refrigeration £8,000 – £30,000 Depends on whether you are doing a full food offer or reheating and assembling.
Furniture and fittings £4,000 – £15,000 Around £150 to £300 per cover for durable commercial furniture.
EPOS and card payments £600 – £2,500 Plus ongoing transaction fees, typically 1% to 1.75% of card turnover.
Rent deposit and first quarter £5,000 – £25,000 Landlords commonly want six months rent as deposit from a new company with no trading history.
Opening stock and launch £2,000 – £6,000 Beans, dairy, dry goods, packaging and signage.
Working capital £10,000 – £30,000 The reserve that covers wages and rent while trade builds. The line most often left out, and the most common reason a cafe closes in year one.

Indicative UK ranges for a 30 to 50 cover independent cafe, excluding London prime. Use them to sense-check a quote, not as a substitute for one.

The numbers that decide whether it works

These are the figures a lender turns to first, and the ones SquarePlan calculates for you as you enter your sales and costs.

Gross profit margin

65% – 72%

Blended across drinks and food. Coffee carries 75% to 85% once milk and cups are counted; food sits nearer 60%. A plan showing much above 75% blended usually has the packaging, milk or wastage missing from cost of sales.
Rent and rates to turnover

Under 15%

Total property cost against net sales. Above 15% the site needs exceptional volume to work; above 20% it very rarely does, whatever the footfall report says.
Labour cost to turnover

28% – 35%

Wages, employer NIC and pension. Cafes are labour-heavy at peaks and overstaffed in troughs, so forecast by session rather than assuming an even spread across opening hours.
Average spend per head

£5 – £12

Drives everything else. A coffee-and-cake shop lands at the bottom of that range; a brunch offer with licensed drinks at the top. Multiply it by realistic covers to build turnover from the ground up.

Licensing and regulation

Food businesses are lightly licensed but heavily inspected. None of this is expensive, but the timing matters, and a plan that ignores it looks like one written by someone who has not opened a cafe before.

Registration with the local authority
Free, and required at least 28 days before you open. Registration cannot be refused, but trading without it is an offence and it triggers your first inspection.
Food hygiene rating
An Environmental Health Officer inspects and scores you from 0 to 5. In Wales and Northern Ireland display is mandatory; in England it is voluntary but every delivery platform and most customers check it. Build a documented HACCP food safety management system before you open, not after.
Premises licence
Needed for alcohol and for regulated entertainment. Apply to the local authority, allow eight to ten weeks, and expect conditions on hours if you are near housing. Late licences change the economics of an evening offer significantly.
Pavement licence
Outside tables need a licence from the highway authority. Cheap, but it can be refused or conditioned, so do not build outside covers into the forecast until it is granted.
VAT on food and drink
Anything eaten in is standard-rated. Hot takeaway food and all takeaway drinks are standard-rated too, but cold takeaway food is zero-rated. A takeaway-heavy cafe therefore has a materially different VAT position from a sit-in one, and the plan should model it properly rather than applying one rate across all sales.

Writing the plan before you sign the lease

The order matters more than people expect. Almost every cafe that struggles signed a lease first and built the numbers afterwards, at which point the plan is not a decision-making document but a justification for one already made. A lease is typically the largest financial commitment in the whole venture — a ten-year term at £24,000 a year is a quarter of a million pound obligation, and most landlords will want a personal guarantee behind it.

Build the forecast against the specific unit before you commit. You need three things to do it: the rent and rates for that address, a realistic count of covers based on the seating the unit can actually take, and an average spend built up from your own menu prices rather than a sector average. Those three produce a turnover figure. Everything else in the plan follows from it.

Building turnover from covers, not from a target

A common shortcut is to pick a turnover figure that makes the plan work and then reverse-engineer customers to match. Lenders spot it immediately, because the resulting numbers imply queues the site could never handle.

Work the other way. Take the seats, apply a realistic number of turns for each session, and split the week honestly. A 32-seat cafe on a commuter high street might do 90 covers on a Tuesday and 160 on a Saturday, with takeaway trade concentrated between seven and half past nine in the morning. That weekly shape then drives the staff rota, which drives the wage bill, which is the number that determines whether the site works. Averaging it all into a flat daily figure hides exactly the problem you are trying to find.

The costs that get left out

Three lines are missing from most first drafts, and all three are large enough to change the answer.

Wastage. Milk, pastries and prepared food that do not sell. Between 3% and 8% of food purchases depending on how tightly you buy, and it comes straight off gross profit.

Employer’s costs on top of wages. Employer National Insurance and pension contributions add meaningfully to every hour worked. A rota costed at headline hourly rates understates the real wage bill by a margin that matters at cafe margins.

The working capital reserve. Trade takes three to six months to build, and rent, wages and stock are all payable throughout. A cafe that opens with no cash buffer is relying on the first month meeting forecast, and first months rarely do.

Where SquarePlan fits

SquarePlan asks you for covers, average spend, menu costs, rent, the rota and the equipment list, and builds the rest — monthly cash flow, break-even point, profit and loss, and the VAT and payroll calculations underneath them. That means you can change the rent figure or the coffee price and watch what happens to break-even immediately, which is exactly what you want while you are still deciding between two units rather than after you have signed for one.

How this gets funded

Cafes are asset-light and lease-dependent, which limits how much a bank will lend against them. Most independent openings are funded from a mix rather than a single source.

Start Up Loan
Government-backed personal loans of £500 to £25,000 per person at 6% fixed, over one to five years, with free mentoring. Two co-founders can borrow separately, which is how many cafes reach a £40,000-plus opening budget. A full business plan and cash flow forecast are part of the application.
Asset finance on equipment
Espresso machines, ovens and refrigeration can be leased or bought on hire purchase, spreading the cost and preserving working capital. It costs more in total but it protects the cash buffer that keeps you trading.
Roaster equipment loan
Many coffee roasters will supply and maintain a machine free against a minimum weekly bean order. Model the higher price per kilo across the contract term before treating it as free.
Bank term loan
Realistic where you have security or a strong trading record from another site. A first-time operator with a leasehold unit and no assets will usually be pointed at the Start Up Loan scheme instead.

Frequently asked questions

How much does it cost to open a cafe in the UK?
Realistically £40,000 to £150,000 for an independent cafe outside London prime, with fit-out the biggest variable. Taking a unit that was already a food business, with extraction and drainage in place, is the single biggest saving available and can halve the total.
What gross profit margin should a cafe make?
Around 65% to 72% blended. Coffee alone runs at 75% to 85% once milk, cups and lids are included in cost of sales, while food is nearer 60%. If your plan shows more than 75% blended, check that packaging, wastage and staff drinks have actually been costed.
Do I need a licence to open a cafe?
You must register the premises with your local authority at least 28 days before opening, which is free and cannot be refused. You only need a premises licence if you plan to sell alcohol, and a separate pavement licence if you want tables outside.
How many covers does a cafe need to break even?
It depends entirely on rent and average spend, which is why break-even should be calculated rather than guessed. As a rough shape, a cafe with £45,000 of annual fixed costs, a £6.50 average spend and a 68% gross margin needs roughly 40 to 45 customers a day before it makes anything.
Is VAT charged on cafe food?
Everything consumed on the premises is standard-rated. For takeaway, hot food and all drinks are standard-rated but cold food is zero-rated, so the mix between eat-in and takeaway changes your VAT bill significantly and should be modelled separately in the forecast.

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