Writing the plan before you sign the lease
The order matters more than people expect. Almost every cafe that struggles signed a lease first and built the numbers afterwards, at which point the plan is not a decision-making document but a justification for one already made. A lease is typically the largest financial commitment in the whole venture — a ten-year term at £24,000 a year is a quarter of a million pound obligation, and most landlords will want a personal guarantee behind it.
Build the forecast against the specific unit before you commit. You need three things to do it: the rent and rates for that address, a realistic count of covers based on the seating the unit can actually take, and an average spend built up from your own menu prices rather than a sector average. Those three produce a turnover figure. Everything else in the plan follows from it.
Building turnover from covers, not from a target
A common shortcut is to pick a turnover figure that makes the plan work and then reverse-engineer customers to match. Lenders spot it immediately, because the resulting numbers imply queues the site could never handle.
Work the other way. Take the seats, apply a realistic number of turns for each session, and split the week honestly. A 32-seat cafe on a commuter high street might do 90 covers on a Tuesday and 160 on a Saturday, with takeaway trade concentrated between seven and half past nine in the morning. That weekly shape then drives the staff rota, which drives the wage bill, which is the number that determines whether the site works. Averaging it all into a flat daily figure hides exactly the problem you are trying to find.
The costs that get left out
Three lines are missing from most first drafts, and all three are large enough to change the answer.
Wastage. Milk, pastries and prepared food that do not sell. Between 3% and 8% of food purchases depending on how tightly you buy, and it comes straight off gross profit.
Employer’s costs on top of wages. Employer National Insurance and pension contributions add meaningfully to every hour worked. A rota costed at headline hourly rates understates the real wage bill by a margin that matters at cafe margins.
The working capital reserve. Trade takes three to six months to build, and rent, wages and stock are all payable throughout. A cafe that opens with no cash buffer is relying on the first month meeting forecast, and first months rarely do.
Where SquarePlan fits
SquarePlan asks you for covers, average spend, menu costs, rent, the rota and the equipment list, and builds the rest — monthly cash flow, break-even point, profit and loss, and the VAT and payroll calculations underneath them. That means you can change the rent figure or the coffee price and watch what happens to break-even immediately, which is exactly what you want while you are still deciding between two units rather than after you have signed for one.