Build turnover from the chair, not the target
Every salon forecast should start with capacity. Take the number of stations and multiply by the hours the salon is open to get the hours available to sell. That is the ceiling, and no salon comes close to it. Some hours are always empty, and colour work, consultations and gaps between clients all use time that is not billed.
Apply a realistic utilisation, starting low. A new salon without an existing following might sell a third of its hours in the first months and build from there. A stylist bringing a full column might start far higher. Then multiply by the average bill per hour, which you get from your own price list and a sensible mix of cuts, colours and treatments rather than your most expensive service. The result is a turnover figure a lender can check, because every step in it can be questioned.
Decide the staffing model before anything else
The choice between employed stylists and chair rental changes almost every line in the plan, so it has to be made first.
With an employed team, the salon keeps all the service income and pays wages, commission, employer National Insurance and pension. It controls the prices, the rota and the client experience. It also carries the full wage bill in quiet weeks, and it will almost certainly be registered for VAT, which takes a large slice of every service price.
With chair rental, each stylist is a self-employed business paying the salon a weekly or monthly rent. The salon’s income is smaller but steadier, its costs are lower, and each stylist’s takings are their own, which is part of why the model is so common. The salon gives up control over much of how the business runs, and the arrangement has to be genuine: a stylist told when to work, what to charge and which clients to see may well be an employee in HMRC’s eyes.
Many salons run a mix. Whichever you choose, model it properly and say why you chose it.
The costs that get left out
Product used in services. Colour is expensive, and a salon doing a lot of it can spend a noticeable share of service turnover on backbar product. Cost it per service rather than guessing a monthly figure.
Training and education. Keeping stylists’ skills current costs money and chair time. Salons that skip it tend to lose stylists, and stylists take clients with them.
No-shows. A missed appointment is an hour that cannot be sold again. Deposits and cancellation charges reduce it, and the plan should say which you will use.
Where SquarePlan fits
SquarePlan asks for your stations, hours, prices, staffing costs and start-up spend, and builds the monthly cash flow, profit and loss and break-even point, with the VAT and payroll calculations underneath. You can compare an employed team with chair rental, or see what a different utilisation does to break-even, while you are still choosing a unit rather than after you have signed for one.
